On Friday night, Princeton will face Harvard in a marquee matchup that has direct implications for both teams’ hope of an NCAA bid.
Last time both sides played, it came down to the wire: sophomore guard Ashley Chea scored the program’s second game-winning buzzer beater in 22 years to beat the Crimson 52–50.
March Madness implications
After last weekend’s loss to Columbia (19–5 overall, 10–1 Ivy League), the Tigers (18–6, 9–2) and Crimson (20–3, 9–2) are tied for second place in the Ivy League standings.
“We’re just looking to bounce back from last week’s loss and to just play Princeton Basketball,” Chea wrote to the ‘Prince’. “I think that when we are connected and all on one page that we can be hard to beat. That’s when we are at our best.”
Only one of these three teams will secure an automatic bid to March Madness through Ivy Madness. The other two will have to hope that their resume warrants their school’s name being called on Selection Sunday.
With Columbia’s remaining schedule not featuring either Harvard or Princeton, the Lions will likely claim the Ivy League regular season title, setting up a likely rematch between the Tigers and Crimson.
When asked whether the high probability of facing Harvard in the Ivy Madness semifinals would change Princeton’s tactical approach Friday night, Princeton Head Coach Carla Berube wrote — “Absolutely not. It’s a really important game for our chances to be in the NCAA Tournament so we are going to put it all out there.”
Out of the three teams, the Tigers have arguably the weakest resume. One of the most common metrics used by the NCAA selection committee is the net rankings. Harvard is ranked 34th, with Columbia trailing at 42nd. Behind both teams are the Tigers at 49.
In ESPN’s latest Bracketology by Charlie Creme, Princeton is predicted to be the first team out, while Harvard is one of the last four teams to make it in. Should the Tigers win Friday night, they would likely see their name move into the projected field.
“We know what this game means and will do whatever it takes to get the win on Friday,” Chea said.
Another key metric that will be used on Selection Sunday is “significant wins” and “bad losses.”
“The number of Quadrant 1 (Q1) wins and Quadrant 3/4 (Q3/Q4) losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding,” according to the official NCAA website.
The Tigers once again trail the Lions and Crimson in both categories. Princeton has yet to pick up a Q1 win in its two opportunities – at Utah and Columbia – while Columbia and Harvard have one and two, respectively. Similarly, the Tigers have two Q3 losses – against Duquesne and Quinnipiac.
Last year, the Orange and Black had a staggering four Q1 wins and only one loss outside Q1.
Crimson vs. Tiger
On Friday, the Tigers have a chance to add a marquee Q1 win to their resume when they take on the Harvard Crimson.
The defense from both sides stole the show the last time these teams met, with a combined total of just 3–28 shooting from beyond the arc.
For the Orange and Black to find success Friday night, they will need to hit some timely triples against the Crimson.
Harvard’s bread and butter is their aggressive press. While most teams in the Ivy League play a traditional defense, Harvard and Columbia run a press that most teams aren’t familiar with.
“The most difficult part of their press is the fact that they are in it for 40 minutes,” Chea said. “It’s impressive that they get into it very quickly and are tough in it. We’ve seen it all year and will be ready for it.”
Harvard is led by senior guard Harmoni Turner, the reigning First-Team All-Ivy and one of the frontrunners for Ivy Player of the Year, who leads the league in scoring with 21.3 points per game. Turner has scored at least 33 points three times this season.
“We’re going to have to limit her touches and make it tough for her,” Berube said. “She’s been a great catalyst for their offense. [Harvard guard] Elena Rodriguez had a great game against us last time so we need to lock in and defend. We have to limit their second chance opportunities by boxing out and getting to those defensive goals.”
Despite her skill, Turner struggled against the Tigers last time around. She scored 15 points but shot 5-for-18 from the field. Turner was defended by sophomore guard Olivia Hutcherson, who had just been inserted in the starting lineup following the injury to star junior guard Madison St. Rose.
“I think the most important key to guarding her on Friday is denying her the ball as much as possible and keeping my hands high, so she doesn’t have any easy looks at the basket or her teammates,” Hutcherson said.
Against Columbia last weekend, Lions star guard Riley Weiss scored a career high 34 points. The Tigers must limit Turner’s looks early and not allow the Texas native to get a hot start in front of the home crowd.
The Crimson also leads the Ancient Eight in margin of victory, with an 18.7 margin this season. Princeton is third, significantly behind Harvard with a 10.2 margin. The Crimson also lead the Ivy League in least points allowed, holding their opponents to the lowest field goal and three point percentage.
On the other hand, the Tigers have a more balanced scoring attack. Excluding St. Rose, the Tigers don’t have any player averaging more than 13 points per game. Chea and sophomore guard Skye Belker each average over 12 points per game, while sophomore forward Fadima Tall is averaging 9.6 points per game.
The Tigers have the best shooting splits in the league — 46.6 percent from the field and nearly 35 percent from beyond the arc.
“The keys are just being confident and being the point guard that this team needs. Whether it’s passing or scoring, I’m willing to do whatever it takes to win,” Chea said.
On Friday night, fans can expect a defensive slugfest between the statistically two best defensive sides.
For Harvard to win, they need to continue doing what has worked for them all season — make life difficult for the opposing offense, have a strong showing from Turner, and feed off its home crowd at Lavietes Pavilion. For Princeton, the key will be to rise to the occasion on the road against the Harvard press defense and get quality shots up while limiting Turner from tipoff.
For Coach Berube and her staff, there are three keys to the game.
“Number one is controlling the basketball, blocking out, rebounding. Number two is taking care of the basketball and getting a good shot. Number three is doing a good job on Harmoni and Elena by making it more difficult for them,” Berube said.
Hayk Yengibaryan is an associate News editor, senior Sports writer, and Education Director for the ‘Prince.’
Please send any corrections to corrections[at]dailyprincetonian.com.
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