As voters head to the polls today for the general election, the race remains razor-thin, with final polls showing a deadlock between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. On the eve of the election, The Daily Princetonian spoke to professors at Princeton, who evaluated the race’s tight margin, potential for fallout after the election, and their predictions on the outcome.
“Based on all of our objective indicators, it’s about as close to a tie as you can imagine,” Professor of Politics and Public Affairs Nolan McCarty told the ‘Prince.’ “Not only are the national polling numbers within the margin of error, but that's true of almost all the state polls for the electoral college.”
Neuroscience professor Sam Wang added, “Everybody knows that when you look at state polling data, it looks like things are on a perfect knife edge.”
Wang, however, is looking beyond polls and pointed to other national trends that may offer insights into who might win.
“In some ways, polling, having told us that it’s a tie, is not as useful as one might want, and so it’s necessary to look at other clues,” he said.
Wang believes voting behavior following the 2022 Dobbs decision to be one significant clue. The case, which ended federal protections for abortions, led to “a sudden change in voter performance” in special elections coincident with “a move towards Democrats,” he said.
“[Special elections] are interesting because they capture both voter intensity and also whether voters are going to behave differently from the previous election,” he said. Wang noted that with recent special elections leaning Democratic, the party may be positioned to win control of Congress.
On election night, professors will be paying particular attention to Pennsylvania’s results. “Pennsylvania is gonna be the key state to determine the outcome of the election,” Professor of Politics and Public Affairs Ismail White said.
McCarty noted that Pennsylvania’s voter demographic profile closely resembles those of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa, suggesting these states may likely lean in the same direction this election.
“I think that the outcomes in Pennsylvania are going to be highly correlated with those in Michigan and with those in Wisconsin,”he said. “I think if there’s any movement in one direction or another, it's going to be true of all the states.”
White views the election as a “turnout battle” in key states. “Both sides are relying on the base, but certainly the Republicans need the Trump voter to turn out, and the Democrats are looking at their base and trying to get Independents and people in the middle to turn up,” he said.
Professors also commented on the unprecedented nature of the race, from the tightness of the race to the candidacy of both Trump and Harris.
“There are some unique things about this election, in particular, the lack of a clear front runner this late in the election — but that doesn't mean the election is going to be close,” McCarty said. McCarty noted that with such a tight race, even a standard-sized polling error could potentially shift the advantage significantly toward one candidate.
Journalism professor Ron Allen contrasted the candidacy of Harris — the first Black and South Asian woman to run for President of a major party — with Trump’s criminal record, which makes him the first presidential candidate with a criminal conviction.
“You have a Black, South Asian woman who is running for President as a nominee of one of the main parties,” Allen said. “On the other hand, you have Donald Trump, who is a unique candidate in that he is a former president who is convicted of dozens of felonies and faces criminal charges in court,” he continued.
“It’s unprecedented that someone with that kind of record is running, and it is unprecedented that someone accused of trying to overthrow the last election is running,” Allen said.
Professors spoke to the potential fallout in the days and weeks following this election. McCarty, for example, believes that the next president’s influence will be largely constrained by a divided Congress.
“Neither side is going to have a substantial majority, if even a majority,” said McCarty.
Additionally, Wang raised concerns about political instability.
“One thing that’s, to me, concerning is that current politics might be a time of a significant threat of instability. And we had an insurrection four years ago, and so that would be evidence, I think, that things are unstable,” said Wang.
Allen discussed the potential of the results of the election being legally contested, specifically in Pennsylvania.
“President Trump meeting in Pennsylvania in some ways laid a groundwork for contesting the election as he continues to contest the one from 2020,” he said. “I'm concerned about what’s going to happen in the days after the election, and I hope the result will be seen as legitimate and free and fair by the majority of the public.”
Regardless of the outcome, Wang sees the election as part of a broader inflection point in American history. “There is some chapter to be written in our democracy,” Wang said. “And we are at a strange turning point where in the next few years, we're going to find out what's in that chapter.”
Although most of the professors interviewed avoided making definitive predictions about the outcome, the two who did express a clear forecast favored Harris for the presidency.
“If I had to make a prediction under duress, my guess is that Vice President Harris has a slight advantage going into tomorrow,” McCarty said. “I think there’s a lot more fragmentation on the Republican side than there was before, and I think that's probably being masked in the polls,” he continued. McCarty also cited increasing identification with the Democratic party in recent weeks and favorable polling towards Harris in the last weeks of the election in explaining his prediction.
Wang agreed. “If you were to force me to guess, I would guess Harris,” he said.
Polling stations in Princeton open from 6 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. Alongside the race for the White House, Princeton voters will determine seats for Congress, local school board, and town council today.
Sena Chang is a News contributor for the ‘Prince.’
Please send any corrections to corrections[at]dailyprincetonian.com.
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