Coming off back-to-back appearances in the NCAA tournament, this year’s Tigers’ women’s basketball squad will hope to make their postseason success a trilogy with this weekend’s Ivy Madness conference tournament. On Friday, March 15, Princeton women’s basketball (23–4 overall, 13–1 Ivy League) will head to Levien Gymnasium at Columbia University to take on Penn (15–12, 7–7) in the semifinal round of the tournament and, if they win, face the winner between Columbia (22–5, 13–1) and Harvard (16–11, 9–5) the next day. Despite having the same conference record as Columbia, the Tigers have the top seed because they outrank Columbia in the NET ranking.
The Tigers’ matchup against the Quakers is a rematch of this past weekend’s contest, where Princeton won handily in Jadwin on their senior night. The Tigers have faced the Columbia Lions twice before, cruising to victory at home and fighting to a close loss away, while the team has defeated the Harvard Crimson in both of their meets this season.
With the moment of truth fast approaching for Head Coach Carla Berube’s defensive powerhouse, The Daily Princetonian looked at the matchups that lie ahead for the Tigers as they enter the concrete jungle, hoping to make their third-consecutive appearance in the national tournament.
Taking a look at Penn: more than just happy to be here
Despite being the fourth ranked squad, Penn should be taken seriously. Offensively, the Quakers are led by a three-headed monster — guards Stina Almqvist and Mataya Gayle and forward Jordan Obi — that combines to average over 44 points a game. Almqvist leads the trio with 15.5 points per game while Gayle and Obi average just north of 14. The trio’s success this season was reflected in their wealth of post-reason accolades — Gayle was named Ivy League Rookie of the Year, Obi was first-team All Ivy, and Almqvist was second-team All Ivy.
Outside of their big three, though, Penn lacks serious scorers, with nobody else averaging above six points per game.
In terms of crafting a game plan, the Tigers don’t have to look past last weekend. Although Princeton started with a bumpy first half, they ended up winning by 17 points in a match-up where Penn showed some clear vulnerabilities. While neither side shot particularly well from three, Princeton successfully forced Penn into a lot of difficult two-point shots, which contributed to Penn only shooting 38.8 percent from the field with Princeton converting 52.5 percent of their attempts.
While Princeton may be undersized against some Power 6 teams, the team sizes up well against Penn. Both teams’ tallest starter is 6 foot 1 inch. Princeton’s 6 foot 1 inch forward is none other than senior forward Ellie Mitchell, who has 58 more rebounds than anyone else in the Ivy League, contributing an average of 10 rebounds per game. Mitchell’s success has not gone unnoticed — she recently took home her third-consecutive Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year award.
But Penn has no shortage of rebounding talent. Penn’s Jordan Obi is second in the conference in rebounds, with 211 total. Mitchell won’t be able to let down her guard with Obi, but last Saturday’s clash was promising, as Mitchell outrebounded Obi 8–6. Whether on the glass or in the trenches, the Tigers’ defensive success has led them to wins.
Another key factor in the semifinal matchup weekend will be the teams’ ability to score in the paint, an area where the Tigers are poised to succeed. On Saturday, Princeton outscored Penn in the paint by a massive margin, nearly double the Quakers at 50–26. Mitchell, along with the duo of junior forward Parker Hill and sophomore forward Tabitha Amanze, will need to continue to assert a strong presence in the paint while allowing Princeton’s playmakers on the periphery to play with their usual prowess.
With a berth in the Ivy Madness finals at stake, Penn is sure to bring their best effort, but Princeton is set up to succeed. It will take a strong defensive effort, assertiveness from Ellie Mitchell in the paint, and effective shooting from outside for the Tigers to complete the three-game season sweep against their fourth-seeded foes.
If Princeton beats Penn, they secure themselves a date in the final the next day against either second-seeded Columbia or third-seeded Harvard. Having won 20 of their last 21 games and playing in their home gym, Columbia — who shares a conference record with Princeton — is sure to be the heavy favorite, so Princeton would certainly be much happier to play Harvard.
A quick look at the Harvard Crimson: a dangerous scoring force
While Harvard’s odds of making the championship are certainly low, it would not be impossible for them to make it to the final on Saturday.
Four of Harvard’s players average over ten points per game, any of whom can go on a hot streak and carry their team to victory. Turner, the first-team All Ivy guard, averages over 19 points, six rebounds, and four assists per game. Turner’s stellar play is supported by Honorable Mention recipients Lola Mullaney and Katie Krupa, who average 13.6 and 11.1 points per game, respectively.
When Harvard came to Jadwin Gym in their most recent matchup against Princeton, they made the Tigers sweat. In the first half, Harvard perfectly executed their gameplan, leading to a 33–28 lead. However, as has been the case in so many games this season, Berube helped the Tigers bounce back in the second half, limiting Harvard to only six points in the third quarter.
While the Tigers extended their lead in the fourth for an eventual 60–49 win, faults remain in the box score that the Crimson could target once again. In a rarity for Princeton, they lost the turnover battle, committing 20 turnovers to Harvard’s 15. The Tigers also had an uncharacteristically bad day from long distance, shooting a mere 25 percent from three. However, Princeton’s success on the glass and effective field goal shooting powered them through to the win.
If Harvard manages to upset Columbia, Princeton will need to ensure that they win the turnover battle while continuing to dominate the paint.
Columbia: the lion that likely awaits
Columbia will almost certainly be the opponent that the Tigers will play should they scrape past Penn and make the Ivy Madness final on Saturday.
The Lions have won 20 out of their last 21 games. The high-powered Columbia squad features Ivy League Player of the Year Abbey Hsu, supported by All-Ivy second teamers Cecilia Collins and Kitty Henderson, both of whom average over 11 points and four assists per game. Due to the luck of the rotating schedule, Columbia will also have the home-court advantage and the raucous crowd that comes with it.
In the two sides’ last matchup, Columbia became the only Ivy team this year to beat Princeton, barely edging out the Tigers at home with a score of 67–65. While Princeton carried a one-point lead into the half, Columbia had a torrential third quarter, putting up 24 points including 13 from Hsu, leading them to victory.
The clear lesson that the Tigers must take from that matchup is how to limit Hsu. This task is clearly easier said than done — she is the fourth-most proficient scorer in Ivy League history.
On the offensive end of the floor, the Tigers need their leading scores to heat up — a task they’ve struggled to do against the Lions in their previous meets. In the Tigers’ January victory against the Lions, their two leading scorers failed to exceed expectations, with senior guard Kaitlyn Chen dropping only 11 points and sophomore guard Madison St. Rose shooting 9 for 17 from the field for 21 points, and with first-year guard Skye Belker adding 21 of her own. In their February loss, Chen and St. Rose combined for only 24 points on an abysmal nine-for-33 from the field. Ellie Mitchell can’t be expected to collect 18 rebounds as she did in that game, so Princeton’s two scoring leaders will need to find ways to make shots in the face of Columbia’s defense.
Hsu scored 21 on eight-of-22 shooting in January — and while it may sound silly to call 21 points a weak performance, the Tigers would be thrilled to hold her to that bar this weekend. That, alongside a 20-point performance or two from the star duo of Chen and St. Rose, would significantly narrow Columbia’s path to victory.
With the tipoff of this year’s Ivy Madness fast approaching, Princeton and their coaching staff have a gargantuan task ahead of them. While short-term memory may lead the Tigers to victory against the Quakers, the likely contest against the Lions will prove to be the greatest test these two big cats face thus far.
The semifinal against Penn will be broadcast on Friday, March 15 at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN+. If the Tigers win, the final game will be at 5 p.m. on Saturday, March 16 on ESPNews.
Max Hines is a staff Sports writer for the ‘Prince.’
Please send any corrections to corrections[at]dailyprincetonian.com.
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