Sam Wang, professor of molecular biology and creator of the Princeton Election Consortium, believes that the most interesting results to watch for on Election Day are not those of the presidential race, but rather those of the U.S. Senate.
“I can’t emphasize enough … this is a really unusual time in U.S. politics and I think the stability of the federal government may in fact depend on who controls the Senate,” Wang explained.
The PEC is one of the leading poll aggregation websites in the country, featuring statistical analyses of an array of political races in addition to a variety of political commentary. Using data from state polls, the PEC includes detailed predictions of such races.
As of Nov. 7, the PEC’s Senate snapshot predicts an even Democratic+Independent/Republican split in the Senate. “The Senate will end up probably, but not definitely, being controlled by the Democrats. There’s a very good chance it will be a 50/50 Senate … I would say the odds right now are four-to-one in favor, but that’s not definite by any means,” Wang added.
He explained that the Senate’s control is going to be determined by “six or seven very close Senate races” in Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
“This year, really, all the suspense is in the Senate,” he added.
Fares Marayati ’19, a resident of North Carolina, attributed his state’s swing state status this year to “an expansion in urban centers and cities” and “an influx of young employees, young college graduates that are coming to work [in the state],” who tend to be more liberal. However, he predicts the Senate seat will go to incumbent Republican Richard Burr because “he is admired collectively in the state.”
Another poll aggregation source, FiveThirtyEight, has its polls-only forecast predicting a 48.4 percent chance of Democrats gaining control of the Senate, with a 51.6 percent chance for the Republicans. Additionally, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predictions have the Senate at a 50/50 tie.
Wang stressed the importance of the ultimate Senate outcomes, noting that the results “will determine … what kind of Senate the president would face in the new year.”
He noted that the makeup of the Senate is especially of interest this election in terms of the future of the government’s efficacy.
“Given polarization that has been happening over the past years, it is likely that a Republican Senate would be willing to block cabinet appointments and Supreme Court appointments and other traditional appointments, so the Senate control is really critical for the stability of the Federal Government,” he explained.
While Wang does not predict a presidential recount, he foresees four possible Senate recounts. He added that he would be “particularly attentive” to possible recounts in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.
“If anybody is going to lawyer-up, they should lawyer-up for the Senate races in those four states,” he added.
As for the presidential race, Wang noted that while the contest is “a very emotional” and “very polarized race,” the climate for making the calculations has been “calm.” He attributed this to the movement of the polls, explaining that “as polarization has gotten more and more intense, polls have moved less and less. And so, in fact, the Clinton-Trump margin … has moved up and down this year less than any presidential campaign on record.”
Based on 224 state polls, the PEC predicts a Clinton victory. According to Wang, there are “no swing states, per se” in the presidential race. However, there is some suspense as to what will happen in some states.
“If you look at the record, voting usually comes in pretty close to state polls, but there can be a discrepancy of one to two percentage points in either direction,” Wang said. “Right now, Hillary Clinton is underperforming where she’s been for the last several months, and so statistically, to me that [shows] that she will do a little bit better than her polls when votes are counted tomorrow.”
PEC gives Hillary Clinton, Democratic nominee and favorite to win the presidency, a 99 percent chance of winning over Republican nominee Donald Trump. Other polling aggregates predict a Clinton win. The New York Times asserts Clinton has an 84 percent chance of winning, FiveThirtyEight a 70 percent chance, and Sabato estimates that the race will lean blue.
He said that early voting has begun to confirm this notion.
“Early voting seems to be going about the same as … in 2012, and that suggests that the overall result will be similar to Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012. So, early voting… is some indication of what will happen,” he said.
With regards to the potential impacts of the recent letter from Director of the FBI James Comey on voter behavior, Wang said that the net effect of the Comey letter was to “suck oxygen out of the room for anything like Senate races and discussion of issues.” He added that the net effect of the letter can only be ascertained on Election Day.
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