Column: 2nd-round NBA playoff predictions

The Spurs surprised the Western conference by coming out of the gates strong, only losing four of their first 32 games. Unfortunately for the Spurs, they once again surprised the Western conference by losing four of their first six games against the Memphis Grizzlies.

I’m not going to pretend I expected this result (in fact, if you read my first-round previews, you would know I didn’t expect this result), but having watched both teams I can’t say it was a complete surprise. Memphis came into the postseason with a 46-36 record, but also without its star, Rudy Gay. Gay’s absence has allowed Zach Randolph to prove his worth (almost literally, as he re-signed for a four-year, $71 million deal after leading the Grizzlies to their first playoff win in franchise history).

The Grizzlies — particularly Randolph, who averaged 21.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game in the series — matched up well against the Spurs. San Antonio didn’t manage to stop him, while the Grizzlies’ defensive duo of Tony Allen and Shane Battier put the brakes on Manu Ginobili’s and Richard Jefferson’s offensive ability.

These two stoppers will prove to be key in the matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The All-Star duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will have its work cut out for it against Battier and Allen.

Randolph will have just as many issues in this series as the two All-Stars mentioned earlier. Instead of matching up against an aging Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter, Randolph will have Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka to deal with, two solid defensive-minded big men. However, if he can continue playing at the level at which he’s been playing, the Grizzlies won’t be ending this unexpected run anytime soon. If head coach Scott Brooks doesn’t get his Thunder to take the Grizzlies seriously, they could be watching the rest of the playoffs from home.

Speaking of home, the Thunder and Grizzlies will be playing on the Thunder’s home court, the Ford Center, which will prove to be a much tougher environment for the visiting Grizzlies than would be the Spurs’ Alamo Dome. This series will test both the Grizzlies’ and the Thunder’s playoff experience and fortitude, and I think that the Thunder’s advantage in that category will give them the deciding edge in the series. I pick the Thunder in six games.

Before Kobe Bryant’s dunk in the Lakers’ fifth game against the Hornets, the last time I had seen a snake get that high up in the air, it was followed by Samuel L. Jackson’s declaration that he had “had it with these monkey-fighting snakes on this Monday to Friday plane!” Seeing the Black Mamba put down a soaring dunk over Emeka Okafor brought back memories of the Afro, the number eight (and 81) and the last time the Lakers three-peated.

Now that Kobe and the Lakers have gotten their acts together, the rest of the Western Conference know they’ll need to play at their top level to beat Los Angeles because the Lakers are starting to peak now. Throughout the regular season, the media gave the Lakers grief for looking lethargic and questioned their drive. Now that the Spurs are out and Los Angeles is the highest seed left in the West, can anyone really question that they are the favorites still in the conference?

Phil Jackson and the Lakers have perfected the art of peaking at the right moment, and I think the Mavericks won’t be able to match their intensity, size, talent or desire. Lakers in five.