Column: Picking out which contenders will be NCAA Cinderellas

Most of the attention before the NCAA tournament goes to teams from big name conferences, deservedly so. But those teams, even the ones with lower seeds, aren’t nearly as interesting to me as the under-the-radar squads from low-prestige conferences that occasionally take the country by storm. From Cornell and the University of Northern Iowa last year, and George Mason’s Final Four run a few years ago, we know that some team is going to emerge as the darling of the tournament, so who will it be? The evidence from previous years suggests a few possibilities, listed here with their records, conferences, Ratings Percentage Index (one of several systems considered in seeding teams) and their currently projected seed, according to ESPN’s “Bracketology.”

Belmont University (30-4, Atlantic Sun, 31 RPI, currently projected 12 seed)

The Atlantic Sun Conference hasn’t seen a team win a tournament game since 2001, but Belmont is no ordinary minnow. Of their four losses, three were to likely tournament teams from the Southeastern Conference (one to Vanderbilt and two to Tennessee). They are 11th in the nation in points per game, shoot almost 40 percent from three-point range and won their conference championship game by 41 points. They also are not woefully undersized, with six-foot-nine-inch and six-foot-ten-inch juniors Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders, respectively, leading a competent rebounding front line.

Bucknell University (24-8, Patriot League, 63 RPI, currently projected 13 seed)

Bucknell exploded onto the scene in 2005, with an upset over Kansas University as a 14 seed, and won another tournament game as a nine seed in 2006. This year, the Bison went 13-1 in the Patriot League with the nation’s eighth-best three-point shooting percentage and the 6-foot-11-inch Mike Muscala (15 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in fewer than 30 minutes) who plays both forward and center, as well as guard Bryson Johnson (46.8 percent three-point shooting). Bucknell lost to Princeton early in the season but has lost just once in 2011. “Bracketology” currently projects the team to play Wisconsin, who lost last year to a similar (if not better) Cornell team based around lights-out shooting.

Big Sky Champion (currently projected 15 seed)

By Wednesday night, the champion of the Big Sky conference may be either the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks or the Northern Colorado Bears. The Big Sky conference can shoot: Northern Arizona University and Weber State University were the number-one and number-two three-point shooting teams in the country, and Northern Colorado University wasn’t too far behind at number 18. Either would be an enormous long shot, but Northern Arizona played University of Arizona very close in December and features sharp-shooting Cameron Jones and his average 20 points per game.

Oakland University (25-9, Summit League, 59 RPI, projected 13 seed)

The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are the culmination of everything that I want to see in college basketball. They play at a breakneck pace and average the second-most points in the country; they have a pretty cool name; their three-point shooting is better than solid; they have a player (Keith Benson) averaging 18 points, ten rebounds and under four blocks per game; and they have played five ranked teams this season, winning one of the games (over then-No. 7 Tennessee) and staying competitive in all but one of the others.

Morehead State University (22-9, Ohio Valley, 69 RPI, projected 14 seed)

If I had to pick only one of the above teams to pull off an NCAA tournament upset, it would be the Eagles of Morehead State University for one very big reason: forward Kenneth Faried. Faried, who was featured in the Jan. 24 edition of Sports Illustrated, leads the nation in rebounding with an astounding 14.5 per game and is a likely first-round NBA pick. Morehead State only has two decent three-point shooters, but any team they play will have enormous problems dealing with Faried, as evidenced by the University of Florida’s reaction after beating Morehead State by six in December. In the Sports Illustrated feature, Florida coach Billy Donovan said, “That’s what a next-level guy looks like. He totally destroyed our frontcourt.” In ESPN’s current “Bracketology” projections, Morehead State would travel to Tampa for a rematch with the Gators, but they may play in Newark instead.

When the conference tournament dust settles and the NCAA field is set on Sunday, remember these teams. You never know when the next Cinderella will come out of nowhere.