Column: Busted brackets and bad decisions in the NCAA Tournament

In all honesty, though, did anyone really expect Virginia Commonwealth University to beat Kansas to make it to the Final Four? Heck, did anyone expect VCU to beat University of Southern California in the first round? Apparently, someone did.

Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, said of the 200-to-1 pre-tournament long shot, “VCU is the one team that we don’t want to win. Every other team is good for the house.”

Whoever those few people are who bet on VCU from the start must be very happy right now. The rest of us who had VCU losing in the first game aren’t sitting so pretty.

Anyone who picked any top-four seeds making the Final Four are watching for the love of the game at this point, because this is the second time in tournament history that a first seed did not make the Final Four. For the first time, none of the second-seeded teams made the Final Four either. VCU, a No. 11-seed, will play Butler, a No. 8-seed, while No. 4-seeded Kentucky will play Connecticut, a No. 3-seed.

As a Pac-10 fan, I was happy to see Arizona knock out No. 1-seeded Duke in the West region by 16 points. Any time the Yankees of college basketball lose is good in my book. Well, except for the fact that I had Duke winning it all this year; that makes the loss sting a little.

Arizona forward Derrick Williams took control of the game, putting up 32 points on Coach K’s Blue Devils and grabbing 13 rebounds to help his team move to the Elite Eight. They then fell to UConn, my new favorite.

After watching Kemba Walker’s convincing performance in the Big East Tournament, I was on board the UConn bandwagon for the 2011 tournament. In fact, I had them winning the first bracket I put together, which I eventually submitted to The Daily Princetonian Sports section’s competition.

In the “real” brackets, though, I put too much faith in Coach K’s ability to shut down a star player through superior coaching. Although Kemba is a talented player, UConn did not do much well this year other than rebounding, in which it ranked 11th in the nation. UConn played five games in the Big East Tournament and then had to come to the national tournament and win another six in a row.

I did not have confidence in Walker to carry his team for that many games in a row, but he has proven me wrong so far, averaging 26.75 points and 6.75 assists in his first four games of the tournament while helping the Huskies extend their streak to nine games.

The Final Four team I am perhaps most bitter about is Kentucky, whose toughest test came against Princeton in the first round of the tournament. The Princeton-Kentucky game came down to a last-second shot by star Brandon Knight, which put the Wildcats up by two points with two seconds left. Princeton had held Knight to zero points before the deciding shot.

In my bracket, I may have made a mistake, following my heart instead of stepping back from the situation and asking myself what result would be most likely. Having watched our Tigers win an Ivy League Championship and then beat Harvard at Yale in an incredible game that will probably go down as one of the best sporting events I will ever attend, I couldn’t help but believe that they could and would pull off the upset and beat Kentucky.

I guess I’m paying for that decision with my bracket “offerings,” but it was worth the hope that the Tigers would pull off the upset anyway.

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Although upset after upset has occurred in this tournament (though not the two I was hoping for — the other being UCLA over Florida), I don’t see this tournament as a sign of things to come in future tournaments.

Yes, perhaps none of the first or second seeds made the Final Four this year, but this is the first time that has happened. Winning four games in a row to get to the Final Four is not an easy task, and in this tournament each first seed fell at some point along that journey.

The people who seed this tournament do that job for a reason, though. They look at the teams and pick the strongest four to lead the four regions.

Usually we can see the same names at the top of the lists because talented players will always want to play for good programs where they can be in the spotlight for their entire careers instead of hoping for maybe one or two good seasons at schools such as Butler or VCU. My bracket may not have done well this year, but even if someone gave me great odds on an 11th or lower seed making the Final Four next year, I wouldn’t take the bet. Not because I don’t think upsets are impossible. Just because they are unlikely.

Unless, of course, Princeton makes the tournament again next year as a 12th seed. In that case, I’d make the bet every single time.