Column: Anti-predictions for the Final Four

Bean then responds that in making his list, “I thought of all the things I thought he might do, and then I didn’t put any of those on my list, I only put on the things I didn’t think he’d do.”

I won’t spoil how the story turns out, but it reminds me of this year’s NCAA Tournament, in which the only certainty is uncertainty and the Final Four is bereft of both number one and number two seeds for the first time since the advent of seeding. Rather than make any predictions for the Final Four (which are bound to be wrong anyway), I’ll just say a few things that I really don’t think are going to happen. In this case, that means they probably will.

I don’t think that Virginia Commonwealth University’s defense can keep playing as well as they have been. The astonishing offensive efficiency of Shaka Smart’s Rams has gotten the majority of the credit for the team’s unbelievable run, which is certainly understandable. But what has actually been more impressive is the team’s defense, which allowed teams to shoot 44.4 percent from the field during the regular season (worst in the tournament) and has lowered that to 39.0 percent during the tournament, including an absurd 23.0 percent from three-point range. Give VCU credit (and I certainly have), but the combination of regression to the mean and solid offensive performances from its potential Final Four opponents has to become a factor soon, doesn’t it?

I don’t think Kemba Walker is going to have a bad game at any point during the Final Four. Connecticut’s star has been whatever his team has needed him to be throughout the tournament, whether setting up teammates with 12 and seven assists in the games against Bucknell and Arizona, respectively, or putting the team on his back with over-30-point performances against Cincinnati and San Diego State. He is the best player left in the tournament, and I don’t think that anybody can stop him from controlling the flow of the game to an important degree.

I don’t think Josh Harrellson (the ogre dude on the Kentucky team that Princeton’s valiant front line just couldn’t keep off the glass) can continue inexplicably playing as though he’s good. Come on. This is a guy who scored 28 points all of last season and averaged under eight points a game in the 2010-11 regular season. In the tournament, he’s shooting 25 for 33 from the field (yes, that’s over 75 percent), averaging one rebound shy of a double-double and even getting four steals against Princeton and four assists against North Carolina. The big guy is long overdue for a two-for-eight-type clunker and a visit from the foul trouble gods (another fate he’s avoided in the tournament so far).

I don’t think it is possible for the scoreboard to end the game with Butler’s having fewer points than the other team. They’ve been winning games in all sorts of crazy ways, from last-second tip-ins to bonehead fouls to overtime three-pointers and one good old-fashioned “actually have a significant lead” victory. They’re playing like a team of destiny, and the Ewing Theory after Gordon Hayward’s departure is out in full force. For people who don’t have an obsessive love-hate relationship with Bill Simmons’ writing (or who just don’t read him), the Ewing Theory argues that when a team is counted out because of the loss of their signature star player, they may actually end up playing better. Notable examples include Patrick Ewing and the ’99 Knicks, Drew Bledsoe and the ’01 Patriots, Tiki Barber and the ’07 Giants, Carmelo Anthony and the ’11 Nuggets and this Butler team. Anyway, every game just seems to go Butler’s way this tournament and the aura around them is such that I don’t see that changing.

With all this in mind, here are my Final Four predictions. Kentucky beats Connecticut by ten behind a monster 20-point 15-rebound game from Harrellson as Walker goes six for 19 with more turnovers than assists, while VCU holds Butler to 58 points with a swarming pressure defense. Butler rallies to within two in the closing seconds, but Shelvin Mack misses a 15-footer with four seconds left, and Matt Howard is boxed out for a routine rebound and foul. VCU hits the free throws to clinch. In the final game, Kentucky shoots 0-for-20 from three-point range as VCU continues to play unbelievable defense, but VCU’s shooting ability finally deserts them and the Wildcats win an ugly game behind 10 offensive rebounds from Harrellson. After the game, Kentucky coach John Calipari says the team’s hardest game in the entire tournament was the first-round matchup with Princeton.

Actually, I kinda believe that last part.