This was finally supposed to be the Democrats’ year. Every single indication and bit of conventional political wisdom suggested that the Republican presidential candidate might as well not run. An economy with high-profile difficulties, an unpopular though increasingly successful war and a widely reviled president all spelled disaster for the GOP. It would take a miracle for the Republican candidate to have a real chance.
Actually, it took a series of miracles. Just as it took an unlikely confluence of four meteorological phenomena to create the “perfect storm” in 1991, it took several political events to lay the groundwork for the possibility of Republican victory. Once unthinkable, it is now easy to see a way for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to become the United States’ 44th president. While the Democrats still have huge advantages in voter enthusiasm and fundraising, these are no longer insurmountable.
The first of these events were the split decisions in Iowa and New Hampshire’s Democratic contests. Had Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) won Iowa or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) won New Hampshire, it seems likely that the Democratic Party would have coalesced around the winner. Super Tuesday was then supposed to be determinative; instead, it only deepened the chaos. Both candidates have hammered each other throughout the campaign, and neither side is better off for the vitriol.
While the Democrats traded victories and body blows without establishing momentum, McCain hammered his rivals throughout the country. His clear victories have forced the Republican Party and former opponents to rally to his flag despite personal distaste. Even former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney tried to reconcile as he bowed out yesterday, despite intense personal animus between the two.
The only question currently unanswered is whether the Democrats will be able to avoid a brokered convention, which in the words of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is “not a good scenario.” Part of the reason for this is that, in a convention-floor fight, about 20 percent of the votes will be cast by unaccountable “super delegates,” or party insiders. If either Hillary or Barack wins the nomination despite having won fewer delegates in the primaries and caucuses, the supporters of the loser will go ballistic. And because both candidates, especially Clinton, have reason to believe that they will do well among the super delegates, neither appears likely to drop out and unite behind the other, barring a devastating defeat in the upcoming primaries that currently appears unlikely.
If Clinton and Obama are locked in a fierce fight for the nomination until August that would obviously be detrimental to Democratic hopes in the general election. This is especially so considering that McCain is uniquely well-suited to defeat them.
If anger over excessive partisanship and the status quo is really the defining characteristic of this year’s election, it is difficult to see how Clinton is better-suited than McCain to exploit that anger. No matter what, she is going to remain a more polarizing figure than McCain. In a matchup, she would have a high floor and a low ceiling of support; people either love her or hate her. McCain’s situation is the opposite; he would have the ability to dominate combined with the potential to melt down. Such a campaign would not be the “most civilized election in American history”: Clinton has shown an incredible willingness to pummel even erstwhile allies when necessary for victory, while McCain’s temper is legendary, especially when he is opposed by someone he feels is acting dishonorably.
I also think that McCain matches up better than people realize against Obama. While both have an appeal to independents based on their reputation as “uniters, not dividers,” that appeal is based on two very different things. McCain’s rhetoric is Republican, but his actions are often not. In other words, his reputation is based on the facts, not talk. On the other hand, Obama’s inspirational rhetoric seeks to transcend partisan divides while his votes in the Senate are purely Democratic down the line. According to the National Journal, he was the single most liberal member of the U.S. Senate in 2007, though this result was influenced by his spotty voting record.
At some point, McCain’s actions speak louder than Obama’s words. While Obama is not a partisan who demonizes opponents, I can’t believe Republicans and conservative-leaning independents are going to vote for a far-left member of the U.S. Senate solely on the basis of rhetorical ability. I think that, if given the choice between someone who inspires them but with whom they disagree on the issues and someone they respect and agree with substantively, voters will choose the latter. This is especially true if the almost-religious adoration of Obama subsides before November, as it has begun to. Messiahs can’t get their hands dirty, and Obama has no RFK to serve as his attack dog.
Barry Caro is a history major from White Plains, N.Y. He can be reached at bcaro@princeton.edu.
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