Southeast Asia and President Bush:The art of making enemies

North Korea's public acknowledgement almost two months ago that it has been secretly developing nuclear weapons in violation of a 1994 agreement sent the Bush administration scurrying to respond. Already talking tough about unilaterally invading Iraq, President Bush found himself put on the spot by another member of his "Axis of Evil."

Despite the strong similarities between the two regimes (both countries are ruled by despotic leaders who starve and deprive their populations in order to develop weapons of mass destruction) Bush described Iraq's case as "unique" since Saddam Hussein has gassed his own people and "thumbed his nose" at United Nations resolutions for more than a decade. Thus, policymakers and advisers such as Condoleeza Rice and Colin Powell communicated that, instead of warranting an immediate military response, Kim Jong Il's North Korea was going to be dealt with deliberately and diplomatically.

Nearly two months after North Korea's stunning admission, the Bush administration's policy can be described as anything but diplomatic. Diplomacy would entail a willingness to negotiate, or at the very least communicate with Pyongyang. Instead of engaging Kim Jong Il's regime though, Bush has refused to negotiate anything until North Korea dismantles its nuclear program. This stubborn policy has been maintained despite North Korea's early reassurance by its mission to the United Nations that "everything will be negotiable," including the dismantling of the enrichment program.

The hostile rhetoric coming from the Bush administration may in fact serve to escalate the situation on the Korean Peninsula. One can only hope that the President, despite his penchant for "instinctual" foreign policy decisions often influenced by the hawks of his administration, will grasp the advantages of a diplomatic solution. Just as Bush was talked down from unilaterally invading Iraq, at least for the time being, perhaps he can be talked into a more multilateral approach in dealing with Pyongyang. There is much at stake, as many experts believe that the possession of an atomic bomb in North Korea could be more dangerous to U.S. interests than weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

It appears that economic pressure will be the method of choice for isolating North Korea, as its economy has been ravaged for years and is heavily dependent on foreign aid. The first step was taken last month when the U.S., Japan, South Korea and the European Union announced that they would cut off all fuel shipments to North Korea as punishment for the nation's breach of the 1994 agreement. But significant economic leverage will only come when China is diplomatically on board, as they provide over 90% of North Korea's energy needs, among other things, and are closest to Pyongyang ideologically and diplomatically. Without China, economic isolation will prove ineffective and only strengthen Kim Jong Il's dictatorial resolve.

I believe that working through Beijing is a very viable diplomatic option for the Bush administration. China has shown in recent months a shift towards a multilateral approach in its foreign policy, and seems interested in working with the U.S. in the hopes of maintaining security in the region. At his most recent meeting with Bush in Crawford, Texas, Jiang Zeming affirmed his interest in Sino-U.S. cooperation in order to "ensure a peaceful resolution of the problem." As well, in a highly publicized White Paper on defense published two years ago, the Chinese government maintained that, "China's fundamental interests lie in its domestic development and stability, the peace and prosperity of its surrounding regions, and the establishment and maintenance of a new regional security order based on the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence." A diplomatic approach through Beijing would allow China a chance to display a commitment to such principles, and build on the growing good will in the Sino-U.S. relationship.

Here, presented to the Bush administration, is a unique and viable opportunity for collaboration in East Asia, collaboration that could stabilize the region, ensure security, as well as set a precedent for future multilateral cooperation.

So instead of talking tough and allowing the hawks of the administration to back him into a corner again, President Bush might think about calling on his diplomats. Especially after the recent success at the United Nations, I'm confident that Colin Powell's State Department is up to the task. Otherwise an administration that too often seems to be characterized by talk of war will miss out on an opportunity to perhaps inspire a lasting peace. William Leahy is a History major from Washington, D.C. He may be reached at wleahy@princeton.edu.