Blair and Schroeder on Iraq

Upon first glance, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have much in common. Both brought their center-left parties back to power after nearly two decades of being in opposition. Both are known for their centrism. Schroeder started his political career on the far left of the political spectrum, but as Chancellor has actually lowered taxes. Similarly, Blair forced his Labour Party to abandon its platform of unilateral disarmament, class warfare, militant unionism, and radical pacifism that it espoused throughout the 1980s. Most significantly, under Blair, Labour eradicated Clause 4 from the party constitution signaling the abandonment of its commitment to socialism and the embracing of market forces. Blair and Schroeder (along with former American President Bill Clinton) were architects of the "Third Way," a center-left liberal internationalist ideology.

Blair and Schroeder, however, have taken extremely different stances on Iraq. Blair has been foremost in making the case for war against Iraq. He had indicated that Britain would participate in a unilateral attack with the united States even if it were not authorized by the un Security Council. By contrast, Schroeder has ruled out participating in an attack even if sanctioned by the un, the only NATO or EU member to have refused. While Blair's policy strengthens Britain's ties with America and possibly benefits British national security, it is politically perilous due to strong opposition in the Labour Party to a war on Iraq. By contrast, Schroeder's policy while helping him win reelection is potentially damaging to Germany's national interests and relations with the united States.

As The Economist notes, Blair has placed strong emphasis on Britain's "special relationship with America" and thinks "American power is fundamentally a force for good in the world." He personally believes that American President George W. Bush is correct in his assessment of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. Blair's Labour Party, however, is critical of a war with Iraq. Earlier this year one hundred fifty MPs, most of them from the Labour Party, signed a House of Commons motion expressing "deep unease" at British involvement in an attack on Iraq. Blair has also drawn the ire of trade unions, a powerful force in the Labour Party, with his proposals to use private firms to run public services and has even referred to unions as "scars on my back" and "wreckers." Peter Hain, Minister for Europe, recently warned Blair that he is too detached from party activists. Given that his views on Iraq and public services alienate him from much of his party, it is possible that a leftwing revolt in the Labour Party could bring down Blair's government in the near future. Indeed, The Guardian noted on March 23, 2002, "A hardcore of leftwing Labour MPs are privately pressing for some form of public challenge to Tony Blair's leadership of the party."

The recent passage of U.N. resolution 1441 on Iraq will probably lessen the opposition to war. But the British newspaper, The Daily Mirror, notes that in a recent speech to British MPs, which enraged many members of the Labour Party, "George Bush's top security adviser . . . admitted the U.S. would attack Iraq even if un inspectors fail to find weapons." Should a scenario arise in which Saddam Hussein cooperates with U.N. inspectors, but the United States still decides to go to war, Blair would find strong opposition from his party. Even if there is no revolt against Blair, however, a strong, energized leftwing opposition will make it difficult for Blair to govern and implement the centrist agenda of the "Third Way."

Schroeder's hard-line pacifist stance helped his governing coalition win reelection this September. Polls showed his conservative challenger, Edmund Stoiber, ahead until Schroeder successfully handled floods in eastern Germany and took a strong stand against the war in Iraq, which most Germans strongly oppose.

Moreover, Schroeder's pacifism enabled his coalition to take votes from the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), the former Communist ruling party of East Germany. In a unified Germany, the PDS primarily served as an eastern regional and protest party. The PDS, however, made unprecedented gains in the Oct. 2001 Berlin state election due to its strong stance against the war in Afghanistan, which the Schroeder-led Social Democratic-Green coalition government supported. By taking a pacifist stance on Iraq, Schroeder prevented the PDS from getting 5 percent of the national vote, which it needed in order to qualify for seats by proportional representation. The PDS thus ended up with only 2 seats in parliament compared to the 36 it obtained in the 1998 election. Had the PDS received 5 percent of the vote the Social Democratic-Green coalition would not have obtained a majority.

But while politically expedient, Schroeder's stance has undermined relations with the United States, which have been the cornerstone of German foreign policy since the end of World War II. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated that relations between the two countries are "poisoned" and the chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board Richard Perle said that the best way to mend relations between Germany and the United States would be for Schroeder to resign. Strained relations with America could have dire consequences for German national security considering that the united States has over 70,000 troops stationed in Germany. Refusal to cooperate in an attack on Iraq even if backed by the U.N., moreover, undermines the quest for European unity and a strong EU that Germany has long fought for and as shadow foreign secretary Wolfgang Schauble writing in the Wall Street Journal notes, "Schroeder and Fischer are weakening the authority of the united Nations and hence trampling on a fundamental principle of German foreign policy — the strengthening of the U.N. " Arvin Bahl is from Edison, N.J. He can be reached at abahl@princeton.edu.