Will 'Survivor' survive the outback?

When a herd of students ditch Fristfest at 8 p.m. tonight, you can bet that most of them are rushing to watch the final episode of "Survivor II" and learn which of the three remaining outback castaways will win the million-dollar grand prize.

But while "Survivor" virgins may thrill at witnessing their first finale, I've noticed that the current "Survivor" doesn't grip past fans — this columnist included — the way the first series did. As "Survivor: The Australian Outback" progressed, the show lapsed into a pattern deeply reminiscent of the previous outwit-outplay-outlast challenge. The suspense has worn off for old audiences, and unless producer Mark Burnett refashions the program's next incarnation, he risks an evaporating fan base for repeat customers.

I am not arguing that "Survivor II" is boring or bland for those who skipped out on "Survivor I." On the contrary, those who missed the original because they were out of the country or had better things to do on a summer night have shown tremendous interest in the current run. In fact, challenge for challenge the outback "Survivor" seems just as exciting for them as the tropical island "Survivor" was for its audience. But the first show made its debut during the summer off-season, an untapped resource for the sitcom networks. In light of its switch to spring — with the Superbowl and Sweeps Weeks — the record ratings of "Survivor II" may indicate new, rather than more, viewers. If so, future "Survivor" series will face dwindling popularity as T.V. fans are exposed to it and decide it's a show they watch once avidly and then follow intermittently.

The structure of "Survivor" — having 16 people vote each other off until only two are left and then letting the last seven rejected people choose between the two finalists — entices millions of first-time viewers while boring second-time fans because it resurrects old strategies. (Warning: "Survivor II" fans who remain blissfully ignorant of how the show resembles the original should skip to the last paragraph.) The final jury, those coming in third through ninth place, can equalize a previously lopsided game as Richard Hatch showed last summer and Keith Famie may demonstrate this week with an upset win. Both Hatch and Famie are intensely disliked by fans. In polls of "Who would you have picked?" Hatch scored 11.75 percent and the on-line approval rating for Famie stands at a pitiful 5.4 percent.

So why does it not surprise us that the unpopular people aren't thrown out earlier? Because it's smart for the contestant sweeping the immunity challenges (Kelly Wigglesworth then, Colby Donaldson now) to go before the jury alongside someone disliked by the other tribe members. Yet once there, making the case for winning from the dominant position cuts both ways since the jury members know that the front-runner influenced their earlier ejection.

Once Famie gets to the final two he'll have just as good a shot as Hatch had when he convinced four jury members that he was the ultimate Sur-vivor because he had lasted despite making them hate him. Weird logic, but it could work again. In a face-off against Tina Wesson, Famie might have more trouble winning over the jury. That's why the best hope for a compelling finale lies with Wesson winning the final immunity challenge. Otherwise, we will probably see Famie and Donaldson, who already won the car, submit to the jury's judgment. Although Famie lags behind the Texas Cowboy in personal rapport, his outcast status may take him to victory.

By broadcasting the jury's decision live, Burnett will cleverly heighten the suspense and give one final injection of drama as we watch the Survivor's and the Loser's reactions. Still, Ogakor's dominance over Kucha ever since the 'Merge' and the repetitive format of reward and immunity challenges (Best preparation for "Survivor III?" Practice standing on a chair) makes "Survivor II" an all-too-familiar cousin of its predecessor. If you've never seen "Survivor," go check it out. If you're already a fan, hope for surprises ahead. Jason Brownlee is a politics graduate student from Raleigh, NC. He can be reached at brownlee@princeton.edu.