This is not a good time to be a liberal Democrat. Al Gore has been "talking the talk" of populism, arguing that he stands for the millions of working Americans who have been left behind in this age of prosperity. And at the same time, Joseph Lieberman and the rest of the Democratic Leadership Council have been moving the party in a conservative direction for more than a decade. It was these conservatives who participated in the dismantling of the social safety net in 1996 and who continue to believe that minimum-wage work without child support is better than welfare.
Conservative Democratic leaders also support socially conservative measures — such as the death penalty — and engage in moral crusades against the "cultural pollution" of liberal academia and the entertainment industry. Finally, it is this conservative leadership that joined Republicans in their attacks on immigrants in 1996, raised no objections to the witch hunt against nuclear scientist Wen Ho Lee this year and continues to place undue scrutiny on the campaign contributions of Asian-American citizens.
What's a liberal to do? Stay at home? Vote for Ralph Nader '55? According to the party faithful, voting for Nader is not an option. They argue that we liberals lost our chance when Bill Bradley '65 failed to capture the party's nomination. Following Gore's dictum, we should simply "put up or shut up." Bradley was our last chance to put up; now we must shut up and lend our support to the president's heir-apparent. Forget the fact that "shutting up" is what made liberals marginal to the Democratic Party in the first place. When there are Supreme Court justices that hang in the balance, we should forget our differences and unite for the fight in November.
Democrats are correct in pointing out that voting for Nader can be dangerous in a close presidential race. There are indeed some serious negative consequences to a potential Bush-Cheney administration. At the same time, the advice of "putting up or shutting up" should not serve as a blanket prescription. Liberals should think strategically when making their choice for president. Instead of focusing on national polling data that show an extremely close race, we should look instead to state polling data that show the election as it will really be decided — through the electoral college.
In states where the race is close, we should certainly resist the temptation to vote for Nader. In the majority of states, however, the race is a foregone conclusion. Websites like hotlinescoop.com document the latest polling numbers from each state. In Texas, for example, Gore trails Bush by more than 28 percentage points and has no realistic shot of winning the state's 32 electoral votes. The same is true for "safe-Bush" states like Utah, Virginia, South Carolina and Indiana. In other states like Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey, Gore leads Bush by more than 15 percentage points. In such states, we liberals can safely choose to vote our conscience instead of choosing the path of political expediency.
So, the Democratic leadership is indeed right when it argues that liberals are courting political suicide if their Nader votes lead to a Bush victory. At the same time, we risk continuing our marginal position within the Democratic Party if we blindly follow the advice of "putting up or shutting up." Instead, we liberals should be strategic voters and make our decisions based on the contours of the electoral college. Only then can we ensure a Bush loss, while at the same time reversing the conservative drift in the Democratic Party for future elections. S. Karthick Ramakrishnan is a politics and Office of Population Research graduate student from Holden, Mass. He can be reached at karthick@princeton.edu.
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